stuff oil

[Mart]

Just an addendum, but over the last 10yrs the expansion of RE generation from about 5% to 40% has effectively pushed half of the UK's FF generation off the grid.

I totally appreciate that the task gets harder as we will see more waste/curtailment/spill and need to roll out more intraday storage, then medium term storage, but this shift was achieved with expensive, highly subsidised RE. Each of the CfD auctions showed lower prices and larger capacity, so we absolutely have the potential to do more, and relatively quickly, since I'd have thought 10yrs or less, is a similar timeline to exploration and extraction of new gas at scale.

The earliest off-shore wind subsidies are now £175/MWh, the latest (2019 auction for delivery 2023-25) are £47/MWh, which against an average wholesale price of £40-£50/MWh is great news, and against current gas generation of ~£180/MWh, is staggering.

Combine this with the enormous expansion of interconnectors (shout out to Dan for his updates and info) from 5GW to 7.4GW last year and 17GW by 2025, really does suggest that theoretically we could remove almost all FF generation from the grid this decade, whilst expanding to meet additional demand from electrical space heating and transport, and falling nuclear generation as we get into the 2030's.

Clearly, my insertion of 'theoretically' is crucial, and the problem is harder, but I think the falling costs of RE, even after additional costs for storage and curtailment, will hold prices close to the old average wholesale price.

Look at the caps set for the 2021 CfD auction (results spring/summer 2022) and the usual (and current) gas price, graph from Dr Simon Evans twitter post:

[Mart]

I've already posted too much, so this post makes it even worse, but please believe me, I'm not trying to be preachy, or living in a dream, I go on about this so much because I'm so, so, so excited by the possibilities, and the fact that the technology and costs are all working so well, much better than I'd ever hoped.

So for me, in a very simplistic way, I see the problem, I see we have the solutions, and now I see that economically the greenest solutions come out best too. My head isn't in the sand, and I appreciate there are a tonne of problems, but it appears to me that this all seems to fall into place, we just need to get on with it now. [Edit and correction, we are getting on with it now, and even the questionable policies of the last 7yrs still resulted in massive support for off-shore wind, so perhaps I should have suggested we get on with it at an accelerated pace. I also feel that energy consumption 101 - insulate, insulate, insulate is still not being taken as seriously as it should by this Gov, but I assume pressure is growing now.]

[Joeboy]

Cheers.

Just trying to make the point though that any gas that the UK can discover, even if it was available today, would have virtually no impact on the market price, the UK simply can't move the needle enough.

Timing is crucial, but I have a good answer to that too, 2015 when the Tories managed a majority, and no longer needed to be in coalition, what did they do:
1. Made it next to impossible for LA's to approve on-shore wind planning permission.
2. Made it almost impossible for LA's to refuse fracking planning permission.*
3. Removed on-shore wind and PV from the CfD mechanism.
4. Slashed, then ended the FiT subsidy for demand side PV.
5. Reduced the building standards, by chopping off the last piece which was carbon neutrality.
6. Launched then ended the failed green homes grant scheme, where nobody was able to get anything approved (virtually no-one).
7. Described 'it all' as 'that green crap'.

*By providing false hope for UK fracking (Poland, with far 'better' frackgas potential had already failed economically at this point) they effectively undermined efforts to move away from gas (generation and space heating) asap. By supporting the fracking industry (and jobs) this would have had a negative impact on support for RE, and possibly even a financial impact on the cost of capital for RE developments. For example, simply hinting at negative legislation for diesel vehicles post dieselgate, the Gov deliberately (or accidentally) caused a rapid drop in demand for new diesel vehicles, without technically doing anything, so words and apparent support, or lack of it, does matter.


Hope this doesn't come over as twisted and bitter, it's really important to show just how many years have been lost, and now we are in the sh1t, and every one of those points has been reversed, apart from demand side PV support, even Boris now saying how he believes in climate change, and his recent opinion change is because he's following the science, which I assume means that the science wasn't particularly clear until a year or two ago?

Please don't think I'm suggested an instantaneous miracle with Nirvana tomorrow, but given the time constraints on finding and producing more gas/oil, and the close to zero effect that would have on market prices, it seems to me that we need to move away from these products as fast6 as possible, not commit ourselves to more expense, and the jobs created, when we are already at the point in time when we need to transition demand and jobs away from FF's.

Shirley, the recent price changes and Putin's actions prove the need to change in the long term, the medium term, and by association, the short term?


Just to prove I'm not being short sighted, and appreciate the issues, wouldn't better short term management be achieved by maxing out coal generation in the UK and delaying the end date (2024 I think?), delaying any more nuclear closures in Germany, and where safe, extending nuclear life expectancies in France? This may sound weird coming from me, but at least those measures would have some short term impact on gas prices (via demand).

Nice one and I'm glad we are comfortable enough that you are happy to call me Shirley. I am very much for RE as you know. There is a path through the current bull and to keep advancing while lowering the pollution yet not at the cost of leaving us open to manipulation. If push came to shove, yes to coal, yes to nuclear gen fleet continuing and yes to lignite in Germany. Rather not of course, I'm going to stop now otherwise I'll go political and there's been too much of that in the wider world last couple of days. cheers Mart.

[Ken]

Fortunately we live in a very democratic very largely uncorrupt country. The gov is elected to guide and lead the sheep down the track but just like sheep the pace of progress can be slow and relies on a few braver soles to lead. I truly believe that our leaders and army of backroom boffins have done a good job so far. They have listened to the public (sheep) and the money and we are now are where we are with over 50% of our leccy clean RE.
More and more of the sheep are gaining confidence and understanding and are gathering pace - waiting list for EVs and decline of ICE , very large pipeline of future RE.

Could we have gone much faster, well i dont believe so without spooking the sheep.

The surge in energy prices is just whats required and making people think about their demands and institute change. Already there has been a surge in domestic PV and batts but most importantly we are creeping to houses required to be EPC C or face lower house price etc. HP here we come.

No one need worry the sheep are well down the lane and the gates are open to the big green fields ahead.
Ken

[Mart]

That's a great analogy Ken, and the sheep spooking made me laugh out loud, but is a really good point.

I'm a bit worried to say the current situation may be a good thing in the long run, as of course we will all suffer, but timing wise it's really good that it didn't happen a few years ago. That article I posted from the BBC, and others, have stressed how RE can reduce bills now, and protect us from the pains of imported energy, so such a crucial tipping point has been crossed. I'd love batts and BEV's to be cheaper, but of course it's still early days, so we can't have every wish granted, and I think things are getting better and moving faster than I'd actually hoped.

Space heating is going to be the problem, as even a transition to heatpumps will be painfully slow, but before the end of this decade sales of new cars will be almost entirely BEV's, and leccy generation will hopefully be 90%+ low carbon (I'll guess at 75% RE and 15% nuclear), but need to stress 90% on average, of course there will be times/days when the gas fleet is running flat out.

[Ken]

Yes i agree the domestic heating is the biggy but it needs to start with sensible gas prices not the cheapest gas price EVER in covid times and then continue insulation. I think sensible gas prices now are where they are going to be and i cannot help thinking that as oil production reduces then so will the gas, wont it, thus stoking the price for those who have not taken measures. So "to stuff the oil" will also translate into gas as well perhaps ??

The use of EVs incl buses,taxis,lorries not straining the RE leccy grid hinges on TOU tariffs being able to shift demand to nightime but also on occasions not charging at all if the RE is not there. eg charging in the day if PV is available and there is no wind.

[billi]

well i guess , the more independence the lesser crime or war , we are old enough to deal with this and we are stubit enough to need so much , as all We need is Love as the Beatles would sing

It might sound pathetic and misplaced , but my concern was always to do not rely on imports ,


anyway sad days after those sad days of Covid , it seems the world likes us ,to be confronted with more horror ...



But we are the Mankind , and lets walk on the sun and wind path and sent Putin a message